The global trade landscape is facing drastic changes. On September 30, 2026, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer issued a significant policy appeal during the G20 Trade Ministers' Meeting in Milwaukee. Greer argued that, in response to current global supply chain imbalances caused by industrial overcapacity and non-market policies, nations should re-examine the post-WWII tariff system and the core Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) principle of the World Trade Organization (WTO). The U.S. government believes that the unconditional application of identical tariff treatment has limited the ability of countries to respond to market distortions, emphasizing the necessity of revitalizing domestic manufacturing through tariffs and critical supply chain measures.

This position reflects the Trump administration's attempt to reshape global trade rules to alleviate the competitive pressures faced by domestic producers and workers.

As the U.S. pushes for trade system reform, geopolitical trends in the Oceania region have also become a focus of international attention. According to an analysis by the German media outlet Deutsche Welle (DW), South Pacific island nations have adopted a highly cautious attitude in handling their relations with China. Although China is actively seeking to expand its influence in the region, most South Pacific island nations have yet to sign comprehensive cooperation agreements with China. Analysts believe the primary concern of these island nations is to avoid becoming pawns in the power struggle between major nations like the U.S. and China, which could jeopardize their own sovereignty and development space.

This vigilance toward great power competition, combined with the European Union's recent shift toward strategic investment in the Persian Gulf to address geopolitical risks, outlines the complex landscape of current global supply chain restructuring and geopolitical tension.

There are clear differences in how various media outlets interpret the current state of global trade. The official U.S. position explicitly points the finger at China's non-market policies, arguing that its production scale far exceeds domestic demand, leading to the dumping of surplus products globally and threatening international market order. However, German media approaches the issue from a geopolitical perspective, highlighting the dilemmas faced by European countries, such as Germany, in the process of decoupling from Chinese interests, and viewing the policy choices of South Pacific island nations as a hedging strategy.

Furthermore, South Korea's export data for September shows that, driven by demand for AI chips, semiconductor exports hit a record high. This indicates that despite the impending reshaping of global trade rules, supply chain demand for high-tech industries remains robust, contrasting with trade frictions in traditional industrial products.

For Oceania and global industries, the aforementioned policy changes will have profound impacts. If the U.S. succeeds in pushing G20 nations to strengthen tariffs on key industries such as steel, it is expected to have a direct impact on manufacturing sectors that rely on global supply chains. For Oceania island nations, this means that in future participation in the global trade framework, they must seek a more nuanced balance between the two major economies of the U.S. and China to ensure they secure resources for energy transition and infrastructure construction without being drawn into intense geopolitical conflicts. The trend of alliances between the EU and the Persian Gulf also provides a reference for Oceania nations: to enhance economic resilience through diversified strategic investments and reduce over-reliance on a single market.

However, there remains disagreement regarding the review of the tariff system proposed by Greer. Some economists worry that if countries compete to abandon the MFN principle, it could lead to the rise of global trade protectionism, triggering a chain reaction of trade retaliation and ultimately harming global economic growth. Additionally, while the argument from German media regarding the decoupling of interests from China resonates within Europe, balancing economic prosperity with human rights issues remains a major challenge for governments in practice. These perspectives remind policymakers that when addressing overcapacity and supply chain security, they should not over-interpret the effectiveness of a single trade tool and must consider the complexity of the global economic structure.

Future observation will focus on the specific responses of G20 member states to U.S. trade proposals and whether the proposed steel tariff measures by 28 nations will be implemented. At the same time, whether South Pacific island nations will further clarify their frameworks and bottom lines for cooperation with major powers in upcoming regional forums will be key to observing the geopolitical direction of Oceania. Furthermore, whether South Korea's strong chip export performance can be sustained, and whether strategic cooperation between the EU and the Persian Gulf can effectively alleviate Europe's energy and technology investment gaps, will all influence the stability of global supply chains and the evolution of future trade rules.